In 2009, world production fell by 1.5%, while the volume of trade - by 9%. In 2010, according to consulting firm Economist Intelligence Unit, global GDP is expected to grow by 3.2%, trade - by 3.7%. Of course, this increase is due to the major programs of state stimulation of the private sector, increasing its responsibility, financial stability.
In developed countries most affected by the crisis, growth will be only 1.7%, while in developing countries - more than 5%. The leader, of course, is China. The huge public investment, especially in infrastructure, will ensure the country's economic growth rate of 9%, which will also contribute to lower interest rates.
On the structure and dynamics of world markets for goods and services is likely to affect the uncertainty of the three factors, namely:
· Economic development, especially in the first decade after the crisis;
· The new configuration of the global financial system, complex financial instruments and control;
· Global environmental development, which is especially evident after the Danish round of talks in December 2009
It may be noted two features of commodity markets of the XXI century. First, they are becoming more global with the emergence of new sovereign players claiming their rights to natural resources (which they are willing to exchange for new technology and staff training), but at the same time, the markets generate new forms of protectionism. Second, markets are more complex: in addition to the conventional product of narrow monootrasley (oil, gas, metals, gold) appears broad range of high technology products and high-tech services - the so-called integrated products inter-sectoral cooperation.
Among the expected trends in commodity markets are the following:
1. Developed countries will focus on the manufacture of high-tech products for the modern world standards (which takes into account environmental requirements), production of which is beyond the new giants of the industrial growth (China, India, Brazil) and other major countries of the world. There are two possible consequences of such a scenario:
· Intensify exchanges within the group of developed countries;
· To increase trade between the developed and developing countries: a complex high-quality products and services will share not only raw materials but also on a member of the first products of processing.
2. Likely to be a new round of struggle for the scientific and technical leadership in the world. A country that really transforms the potential of the knowledge economy in the everyday life of society, will be a leader that will be reflected in the structure of commodity markets and services.
3. In world markets is expected to gradually blurring between military and civil products through the use of dual-use technologies and the integration of military and civilian innovation potentials. System Spin-off (technology transfer from the military to the civilian sector of the economy) will be supported by more real system Spin-on (transfer of innovations from the civilian sector to the military). As a result of diversification will increase the product line to accelerate renewal of products, increase intellectual capacity of the commodity markets.
4. It is likely increased global competition in the use of information, communication, aerospace, bio-and nanotechnology at all stages of production, from design to disposal. In the competition will be increasingly important role to play time updates of products (existing markets) and supply of innovative products (forming new markets). Both will depend on the degree of intellectualization of the goods.
5. It is logical to assume that the cost of living labor, particularly highly skilled, will increase. One of the requirements of the market consumers will decrease energy and materials consumption in order to reduce production costs and improve product competitiveness.
In the last ten - fifteen years of mineral, raw material and commodity resources have been subject to unprecedented demand and uncertainty factor due to a combination of the six global macroeconomic, social and business trends that will change the competitive landscape.
Among these trends - the explosive growth in demand for energy and basic material resources, especially in developing countries, shifts in oil supply, natural gas and basic material resources towards the distant (and often geopolitically unstable) regions, greater attention to the consequences of the environmental impact of production and consumption of energy and basic materials, a sharp increase in capital investment required for production and reproduction of mineral and energy resources.
In the face of increasing global competition, increasing resource costs, significant price uncertainty raises the question of the development strategy resourced countries and companies to continually increase efficiency and productivity. In the world there are global changes in economic activity, most notably in the field of energy and mineral resources. Growing demand for them is shifted from developed countries to developing countries, mainly Asian. Experts predict that the demand for oil from China and India for the period from 2003 to 2020 almost double to 15.4 million barrels a day. By the end of this period, Asian countries on this indicator reached the level of the United States - the largest consumer of oil to date.
The growing demand for energy and basic materials from Asian countries along with low labor costs in these countries means that the Asian region will become a major producer of aluminum, chemicals, paper and steel. For example, China's steel capacity growth is so fast that the share of the country in the global production of the metal can be increased from 5% in 2008 to 30% by 2015, and it will become a leading exporter of steel in the world.
In the next decade, extraction and production of the main kinds of resources will be concentrated in regions significantly distant from each other and from their places of consumption. Brazilian wood fiber, for example, will be recycled into paper products in China. The volume of natural gas produced and consumed within the country, will decline, giving way to international flows of long-distance deliveries by pipeline or by special courts (for liquefied natural gas). The same thing is happening with oil, and the trend over time will only increase.
Serious macroeconomic shifts occur within regions. For example, rich in oil and gas country of the Middle East are expanding into new industries themselves, such as chemicals or metals. Dubai, for example, suddenly turned into a leading manufacturer of aluminum - from the use of cheap energy sources (especially natural gas), and proximity to European and Asian markets. Qatar, which in 2010 became the world leader in the production of liquefied natural gas, added to that the production of gas-based high-quality diesel fuel. All this creates new jobs for the rapidly growing population in the region, especially for young people.
The growth of global interdependence, coupled with the need to meet the growing demand for raw materials will have a positive economic impact in the form of a more liquid markets and flexible pricing. At the same time more complicated and long chain of these products in combination with geopolitical issues can impede the supply and lead to price volatility.
With the acceleration of economic development rapidly increasing consumption of natural and other resources in developing countries. For example, China's oil consumption over the period from 2000 to 2010 nearly doubled, and demand for aluminum, nickel and steel has tripled. China, India and the Middle East are trying to rapidly build generating capacity and energy networks, to meet the growing demand for energy. China, for example, is going up in 2020 to build 500 GW of new capacity in addition to 400 GW, introduced over the past two decades. The growing demand for energy and materials calls for massive investment, which, according to the International Energy Agency, for the years 2005-2030. Only the oil industry should make 4.3 trillion dollars (in 2005 prices).
Many resource-rich countries are increasingly trying to spread those resources over sovereignty and control to assign the resource rents. Security of energy supply is becoming a subject of increasing concern of the countries - importers of energy resources (China, Europe, USA). This was due to the gas conflict between Russia and Ukraine in 2006 and 2008
Meanwhile, environmental problems are becoming more relevant for business. Growing concern about the reduction of harmful emissions into the atmosphere (especially carbon dioxide) can cover not only Europe, but other markets. In the electric power industry is spurred massive investment in new generation capacity.
On the other hand, has sharply increased interest in renewable energy sources such as solar or wind power. This sector has become a serious business scope, reaching 30% of all investments in the production of energy in the world. By 2030, renewable energy sources can make up to 10% of the electricity produced in the world, and related technologies will be effective without government subsidies.
New proposals cause significant changes in demand: in the business and consumer sectors, the public sector. According to The McKinsey Global Institute, the global energy consumption can be reduced by 2030 by 25% if households and businesses receive incentives for energy conservation.
Economic growth in developing countries will inevitably lead to the emergence of a billion new consumers in the global market, as household income in the next decade will come nearer to the level of about 5 thousand dollars. Although these consumers will have less purchasing power than those in the developed countries, they are, nevertheless, able to generate a demand for well-known global brands. As a result, in many areas there will polarized markets in which goods "premium" class and the elite class put significant pressure on the average freight segment.
This polarization will inevitably affect both the resource sector. For example, in the automotive industry, centered around the production of the two types of cars - luxury and low-cost, suppliers of stainless steel and aluminum will try to improve their technology in order to create an efficient market materials for vehicles of class "luxury".
Similarly, manufacturers of paper products will have the opportunity to take a lucrative niche in the production of innovative packaging for consumer products, ranging from ice cream and ending with the potato chips. "Luxury" niche will enable producers of aluminum, paper and steel in excess capacity and intense competition to reduce their costs.
Global strategy to attract talent for many companies will be just as important as the current global strategy for resource extraction and production. Here we can distinguish two sides.
First, the growth of knowledge-based industries will lead to a shortage of highly skilled professionals.
Secondly, the integration of global labor markets will create new sources of talent. Even now in developing countries focused 33000000 professionals with a university education, which is two times higher than in developed countries, resulting in